Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Coopsol vs Alianza Atletico — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
11/25/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal Segundo Aranda Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol43%
×Draw26%
Alianza Atletico30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.43
Alianza Atletico
1.15

Deportivo Coopsol creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Alianza Atletico
1.28

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Alianza Atletico
1.53

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
70%
Deportivo Coopsol or Alianza Atletico
74%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
21%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
17%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
68%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
32%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
59%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alianza Atletico attack 1.28 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
43%
level
26%
Alianza Atletico scores more
30%

Deportivo Coopsol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Coopsol vs Alianza Atletico

Deportivo Coopsol beat Alianza Atletico 1-0 in Segunda División on November 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Segundo Aranda Torres in Huacho.