Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Coopsol vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
8/18/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol68%
×Draw20%
Alfredo Salinas12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
2.02
Alfredo Salinas
0.72

Deportivo Coopsol creates 181% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 14 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
88%
Deportivo Coopsol or Alfredo Salinas
80%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
32%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
42%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
87%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
60%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
33%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
51%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
16%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
85%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
68%
level
20%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
12%

Deportivo Coopsol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Coopsol 5 – 0 Alfredo Salinas

Deportivo Coopsol beat Alfredo Salinas 5-0 in Segunda División on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Roberto Yáñez (San Vicente de Cañete).