Deportivo Cartagena 3–0 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cartagena

FT

3 – 0

Santa Ana

9/30/2018

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 13Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán (San Ramón de Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Cartagena46%

×Draw24%

Santa Ana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CartagenaExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.27

Deportivo Cartagena

1.63

Santa Ana

1.27

Deportivo Cartagena creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 109 away

1.81

creates per match

1.42

1.13

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Deportivo Cartagena

1.81

Santa Ana

1.42

allows per match

Deportivo Cartagena

1.13

Santa Ana

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cartagena ↓

Santa Ana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Cartagena or draw

70%

Deportivo Cartagena or Santa Ana

76%

Draw or Santa Ana

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+

24%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals

22%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

72%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

36%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)

61%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cartagena at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.81 + Santa Ana defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.63

Santa Ana attack 1.42 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Cartagena scores more

46%

level

24%

Santa Ana scores more

30%

Deportivo Cartagena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff