Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Cartagena vs Puntarenas FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
FT
0 – 0
Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
1/20/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán (San Ramón de Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Cartagena42%
×Draw26%
Puntarenas FC33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cartagena
1.45
Puntarenas FC
1.25

Deportivo Cartagena creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 64 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.81
Puntarenas FC
1.36

allows per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.13
Puntarenas FC
1.09

finishing

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par
Puntarenas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cartagena ↓

Puntarenas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Cartagena or draw
67%
Deportivo Cartagena or Puntarenas FC
74%
Draw or Puntarenas FC
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
20%
Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
18%
Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
71%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
36%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
56%
Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cartagena at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Puntarenas FC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.81 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Puntarenas FC attack 1.36 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Cartagena scores more
42%
level
26%
Puntarenas FC scores more
33%

Deportivo Cartagena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cartagena vs Puntarenas FC

Deportivo Cartagena and Puntarenas FC drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán (San Ramón de Alajuela).