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Deportivo Cartagena vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagenaadvanced
FT
3 – 0
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
11/18/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán (San Ramón de Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Cartagena58%
×Draw22%
Puerto Golfito20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cartagena
1.92
Puerto Golfito
1.03

Deportivo Cartagena creates 86% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.81
Puerto Golfito
0.93

allows per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.13
Puerto Golfito
2.02

finishing

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cartagena ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Cartagena or draw
80%
Deportivo Cartagena or Puerto Golfito
78%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
34%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
57%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
30%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
64%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
28%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
74%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cartagena at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.02 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.81 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.92

Puerto Golfito attack 0.93 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Cartagena scores more
58%
level
22%
Puerto Golfito scores more
20%

Deportivo Cartagena at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Deportivo Cartagena 3–0 Puerto Golfito

Deportivo Cartagena beat Puerto Golfito 3-0 in Liga de Ascenso on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán (San Ramón de Alajuela).