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Deportivo Cartagena vs AD Guanacasteca — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
FT
0 – 2
AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacasteca
8/25/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Cartagena45%
×Draw24%
AD Guanacasteca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cartagena
1.66
AD Guanacasteca
1.32

Deportivo Cartagena creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 50 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.81
AD Guanacasteca
1.52

allows per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.13
AD Guanacasteca
1.50

finishing

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par
AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cartagena ↓

AD Guanacasteca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Cartagena or draw
69%
Deportivo Cartagena or AD Guanacasteca
76%
Draw or AD Guanacasteca
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
24%
AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
49%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
23%
AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
73%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
38%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
60%
AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cartagena at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

AD Guanacasteca away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.81 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.52 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Cartagena scores more
45%
level
24%
AD Guanacasteca scores more
31%

Deportivo Cartagena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Deportivo Cartagena 0–2 AD Guanacasteca

AD Guanacasteca beat Deportivo Cartagena 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán in San Ramón de Alajuela.