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Deportivo Capiata vs Pastoreo — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pastoreo
Pastoreo
Unknown 82', 76'
J. Paredes 36' (pen)
8/2/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Capiata40%
×Draw27%
Pastoreo33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Capiata
1.35
Pastoreo
1.20

Deportivo Capiata creates 13% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

creates per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.43
Pastoreo
1.25

allows per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.15
Pastoreo
1.27

finishing

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par
Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Capiata ↓

Pastoreo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Capiata or draw
67%
Deportivo Capiata or Pastoreo
73%
Draw or Pastoreo
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
18%
Pastoreo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
15%
Pastoreo 1+ goals
70%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
34%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
55%
Pastoreo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Capiata at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Capiata attack 1.43 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Capiata scores more
40%
level
27%
Pastoreo scores more
33%

Deportivo Capiata at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Capiata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. Gimenez
36'
J. ParedesPenalty
76'
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Capiata 3–0 Pastoreo

Deportivo Capiata beat Pastoreo 3-0 in Division Intermedia on August 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Paredes (36' pen), ? (76', 82').

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler in Capiatá.