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Deportivo Capiata vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
PST
22:00
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
6/20/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Capiata49%
×Draw26%
Fulgencio Yegros25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Capiata
1.52
Fulgencio Yegros
1.02

Deportivo Capiata creates 49% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 48 away

creates per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.43
Fulgencio Yegros
0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.15
Fulgencio Yegros
1.60

finishing

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Capiata ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Capiata or draw
75%
Deportivo Capiata or Fulgencio Yegros
74%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
25%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
20%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
64%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
27%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
66%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Capiata at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Capiata attack 1.43 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Capiata scores more
49%
level
26%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
25%

Deportivo Capiata at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Capiata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Capiata face Fulgencio Yegros (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with Deportivo Capiata hosting Fulgencio Yegros. Match starts June 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deportivo Capiata host Fulgencio Yegros at Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.