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Deportivo Capiata vs 3 de Febrero — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
PST
00:00
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
4/12/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Deportivo Capiata43%
×Draw27%
3 de Febrero30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Capiata
1.38
3 de Febrero
1.09

Deportivo Capiata creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 78 away

creates per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.43
3 de Febrero
1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Capiata
1.15
3 de Febrero
1.32

finishing

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Capiata ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Capiata or draw
70%
Deportivo Capiata or 3 de Febrero
73%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
21%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
16%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
66%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
30%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
59%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Capiata at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 40 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Capiata attack 1.43 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Capiata scores more
43%
level
27%
3 de Febrero scores more
30%

Deportivo Capiata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Capiata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Capiata host 3 de Febrero

April 12, 2020: Deportivo Capiata take on 3 de Febrero in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Capiata host 3 de Febrero at Estadio Lic. Erico Galeano Segovia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.