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3 de Febrero vs Deportivo Capiata — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
5/14/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 17Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

3 de Febrero42%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Capiata33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.48
Deportivo Capiata
1.29

3 de Febrero creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.00
Deportivo Capiata
0.86

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.73
Deportivo Capiata
1.95

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Deportivo Capiata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
67%
3 de Febrero or Deportivo Capiata
75%
Draw or Deportivo Capiata
58%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
77%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
43%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
56%
Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.00 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.86 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
42%
level
25%
Deportivo Capiata scores more
33%

3 de Febrero at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 3 de Febrero vs Deportivo Capiata

3 de Febrero beat Deportivo Capiata 3-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este).