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Deportivo Camioneros vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
4/9/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 3Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros48%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Peñarol24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
1.38
Sportivo Peñarol
0.89

Deportivo Camioneros creates 55% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 62 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
1.10
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.90
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
76%
Deportivo Camioneros or Sportivo Peñarol
72%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
23%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
16%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
59%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
22%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
67%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 1.10 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
48%
level
28%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
24%

Deportivo Camioneros at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Camioneros vs Sportivo Peñarol

Deportivo Camioneros beat Sportivo Peñarol 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano in Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires.