Deportivo Camioneros 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Deportivo Camioneros

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

A. Miranda 5' (pen)

D. Neculman 69'

11/24/2019

Torneo Federal A · South - 13Estadio Hugo Moyano (Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros44%

×Draw29%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CamionerosExpected goals in this matchFerro Carril Oeste LP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.86

Deportivo Camioneros

1.22

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.86

Deportivo Camioneros creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 86 away

1.10

creates per match

0.83

0.90

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros

1.10

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros

0.90

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw

74%

Deportivo Camioneros or Ferro Carril Oeste LP

71%

Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+

20%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals

12%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

58%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

21%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)

63%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 1.10 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.83 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more

44%

level

29%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

26%

Deportivo Camioneros at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. MirandaPenalty

61'

F. Moyano← J. Zaninovich

69'

D. Neculman

70'

L. Ibarra← J. Vivani

72'

J. Campo← M. González

83'

L. Ceratto← A. López

88'

N. Benitez

88'

L. Tello

Deportivo

Ferro

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Alves

61'▲F. Moyano←▼J. Zaninovich

72'▲J. Campo←▼M. González

Deportivo Camioneros substitutes

MoyanoCampo

Manager: M. Giganti

70'▲L. Ibarra←▼J. Vivani

83'▲L. Ceratto←▼A. López

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

IbarraCeratto