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Deportivo Camioneros vs Defensores Glew — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Defensores Glew
Defensores Glew
3/15/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 4Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros55%
×Draw24%
Defensores Glew21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
1.73
Defensores Glew
0.97

Deportivo Camioneros creates 78% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
2.36
Defensores Glew
1.24

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.71
Defensores Glew
1.10

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
Defensores Glew+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

Defensores Glew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
79%
Deportivo Camioneros or Defensores Glew
76%
Draw or Defensores Glew
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
31%
Defensores Glew wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
52%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
25%
Defensores Glew 1+ goals
62%
Defensores Glew 2+ goals
25%
Defensores Glew 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
72%
Defensores Glew (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Defensores Glew away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.36 + Defensores Glew defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.73

Defensores Glew attack 1.24 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
55%
level
24%
Defensores Glew scores more
21%

Deportivo Camioneros at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Camioneros vs Defensores Glew

Deportivo Camioneros beat Defensores Glew 2-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano in Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires.