Deportivo Cali W 1–0 Santa Fe W: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali W

Pens

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Fe W

9/21/2025

Liga Femenina · FinalEstadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Deportivo Cali W41%

×Draw27%

Santa Fe W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Cali WExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.15

Deportivo Cali W

1.35

Santa Fe W

1.15

Deportivo Cali W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 64 away

1.93

creates per match

1.78

0.52

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W

1.93

Santa Fe W

1.78

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W

0.52

Santa Fe W

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Santa Fe W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Santa Fe W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw

68%

Deportivo Cali W or Santa Fe W

73%

Draw or Santa Fe W

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+

19%

Santa Fe W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals

15%

Santa Fe W 1+ goals

68%

Santa Fe W 2+ goals

32%

Santa Fe W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)

56%

Santa Fe W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Santa Fe W away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Santa Fe W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.35

Santa Fe W attack 1.78 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more

41%

level

27%

Santa Fe W scores more

32%

Deportivo Cali W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff