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Deportivo Cali W vs Real San Andrés W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real San Andrés W
Real San Andrés W
2/5/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 1Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Cali W75%
×Draw16%
Real San Andrés W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali W
2.33
Real San Andrés W
0.64

Deportivo Cali W creates 264% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W
1.93
Real San Andrés W
0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W
0.52
Real San Andrés W
2.72

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par
Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Real San Andrés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw
91%
Deportivo Cali W or Real San Andrés W
84%
Draw or Real San Andrés W
25%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
52%
Real San Andrés W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
90%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
67%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
41%
Real San Andrés W 1+ goals
47%
Real San Andrés W 2+ goals
14%
Real San Andrés W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
90%
Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.33

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more
75%
level
16%
Real San Andrés W scores more
9%

Deportivo Cali W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Cali W 2–0 Real San Andrés W

Deportivo Cali W beat Real San Andrés W 2-0 in Liga Femenina on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.