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Deportivo Cali W vs Deportivo Pereira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Pereira W
Deportivo Pereira W
5/29/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Quarter-finalsEstadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Cali W58%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Pereira W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali W
1.67
Deportivo Pereira W
0.82

Deportivo Cali W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 27 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W
1.93
Deportivo Pereira W
1.11

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W
0.52
Deportivo Pereira W
1.41

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Deportivo Pereira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw
82%
Deportivo Cali W or Deportivo Pereira W
76%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira W
42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
32%
Deportivo Pereira W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Pereira W 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Pereira W 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Pereira W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
76%
Deportivo Pereira W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Deportivo Pereira W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Deportivo Pereira W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Deportivo Pereira W attack 1.11 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more
58%
level
24%
Deportivo Pereira W scores more
18%

Deportivo Cali W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali W vs Deportivo Pereira W

Deportivo Cali W and Deportivo Pereira W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.