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Deportivo Cali W vs Deportivo Pasto W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
FT
0 – 0
Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
11/7/2020Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 4Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deportivo Cali W68%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Pasto W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali W
1.86
Deportivo Pasto W
0.59

Deportivo Cali W creates 215% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W
1.93
Deportivo Pasto W
0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W
0.52
Deportivo Pasto W
1.79

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw
89%
Deportivo Cali W or Deportivo Pasto W
79%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto W
32%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
41%
Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
55%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
28%
Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
45%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
12%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
86%
Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more
68%
level
21%
Deportivo Pasto W scores more
11%

Deportivo Cali W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Cali W 0–0 Deportivo Pasto W

Deportivo Cali W and Deportivo Pasto W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.