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Deportivo Cali W vs Boyacá Chicó W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Boyacá Chicó W
Boyacá Chicó W
5/18/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 16Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Deportivo Cali W52%
×Draw29%
Boyacá Chicó W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali W
1.28
Boyacá Chicó W
0.64

Deportivo Cali W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 8 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W
1.93
Boyacá Chicó W
0.75

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W
0.52
Boyacá Chicó W
0.63

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par
Boyacá Chicó W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Boyacá Chicó W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw
81%
Deportivo Cali W or Boyacá Chicó W
71%
Draw or Boyacá Chicó W
48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
24%
Boyacá Chicó W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
14%
Boyacá Chicó W 1+ goals
47%
Boyacá Chicó W 2+ goals
14%
Boyacá Chicó W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
74%
Boyacá Chicó W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Boyacá Chicó W away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Boyacá Chicó W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Boyacá Chicó W attack 0.75 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more
52%
level
29%
Boyacá Chicó W scores more
19%

Deportivo Cali W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Deportivo Cali W 0–0 Boyacá Chicó W

Deportivo Cali W and Boyacá Chicó W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on May 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.