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Deportivo Cali W vs Alianza W — Liga Femenina 2020

Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alianza W
Alianza W
5/17/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 12Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Cali W66%
×Draw21%
Alianza W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali W
1.94
Alianza W
0.71

Deportivo Cali W creates 173% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 18 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali W
1.93
Alianza W
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Cali W
0.52
Alianza W
1.94

finishing

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par
Alianza W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali W ↓

Alianza W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali W or draw
87%
Deportivo Cali W or Alianza W
79%
Draw or Alianza W
34%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
41%
Alianza W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
58%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
30%
Alianza W 1+ goals
51%
Alianza W 2+ goals
16%
Alianza W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
84%
Alianza W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.52 · 60 matches

Alianza W away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.93 + Alianza W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Alianza W attack 0.89 + Deportivo Cali W defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Deportivo Cali W scores more
66%
level
21%
Alianza W scores more
13%

Deportivo Cali W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali W vs Alianza W

Deportivo Cali W beat Alianza W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.