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Deportivo Cali vs Quindio — Copa Colombia 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Quindio
Quindio
U. Rovira 66'
J. Chala 19'
6/10/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 4Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportivo Cali60%
×Draw23%
Quindio17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.80
Quindio
0.83

Deportivo Cali creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.60
Quindio
0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
1.00
Quindio
2.00

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Quindio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Quindio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
83%
Deportivo Cali or Quindio
77%
Draw or Quindio
40%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
35%
Quindio wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
27%
Quindio 1+ goals
56%
Quindio 2+ goals
20%
Quindio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
78%
Quindio (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Quindio away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.60 + Quindio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Quindio attack 0.67 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
60%
level
23%
Quindio scores more
17%

Deportivo Cali at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
J. Chala
66'
U. Rovira
80'
J. C. Caldera Alvis
90+4'
P. Ortiz
Deportivo
Quindio
Rafael Dudamel
Manager: Rafael Dudamel
Carlos Velasco
Manager: Carlos Velasco

Copa Colombia: Deportivo Cali 0–2 Quindio

Quindio beat Deportivo Cali 2-0 in Copa Colombia on June 10, 2025.

Goals: J. Chala (19'), U. Rovira (66').

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.