Deportivo Cali 2–1 Popayan: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Popayan

A. Estupinan 20', 6' (pen)

H. Ortiz 74'

5/31/2025

Copa Colombia · 1st Round - 1Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Deportivo Cali39%

×Draw25%

Popayan36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.38

Deportivo Cali

1.43

Popayan

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.60

Popayan

1.75

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.00

Popayan

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

64%

Deportivo Cali or Popayan

75%

Draw or Popayan

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

18%

Popayan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

17%

Popayan 1+ goals

75%

Popayan 2+ goals

40%

Popayan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

52%

Popayan (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Popayan away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.60 + Popayan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Popayan attack 1.75 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

39%

level

25%

Popayan scores more

36%

Deportivo Cali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. EstupinanPenalty

20'

A. Estupinan

74'

H. Ortiz

Deportivo

Popayan

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Rafael Dudamel

Deportivo Cali substitutes

MorenoVeneciaCuellarGracianoRodríguezRojoAlomia

Manager: Manuel Rodriguez Becerra Jose

Popayan substitutes

GarcíaArcilaMosqueraJaramilloEstradaLandazuryHoyos