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Deportivo Cali vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Patriotas
Patriotas
3/17/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Deportivo Cali53%
×Draw27%
Patriotas20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.44
Patriotas
0.77

Deportivo Cali creates 87% more chances

Season form · 174 home / 109 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.26
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.85
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
80%
Deportivo Cali or Patriotas
73%
Draw or Patriotas
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
27%
Patriotas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
18%
Patriotas 1+ goals
54%
Patriotas 2+ goals
18%
Patriotas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
73%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 174 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.26 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
53%
level
27%
Patriotas scores more
20%

Deportivo Cali at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Patriotas

Patriotas beat Deportivo Cali 1-0 in Primera A on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.