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Deportivo Cali vs Jaguares — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
Preview
01:15
Jaguares
Jaguares
7/25/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Deportivo Cali
Big match
57%
Deportivo Cali
model favours
57%25%19%

Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Cali57%
×Draw25%
Jaguares19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.62
Jaguares
0.81

Deportivo Cali creates 100% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.17
Jaguares
0.73

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.90
Jaguares
2.07

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
81%
Deportivo Cali or Jaguares
75%
Draw or Jaguares
43%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
31%
Jaguares wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
22%
Jaguares 1+ goals
56%
Jaguares 2+ goals
19%
Jaguares 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
75%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.17 + Jaguares defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.62

Jaguares attack 0.73 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
57%
level
25%
Jaguares scores more
19%

Deportivo Cali at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Deportivo Cali sit 6, Jaguares 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
Jaguares
Balanced
51%Possession53%
79%Pass accuracy79%
12.2ShotsBiggest gap13.2
1.01xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo CaliJaguares

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Deportivo Cali
2
Draws
2
Jaguares
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 60%
0–11–21–12–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
WWWWW
Jaguares
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Cali vs Jaguares — Match Preview

Deportivo Cali face Jaguares on July 25, 2026 in this Primera A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Cali host Jaguares at Estadio Deportivo Cali.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.