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Deportivo Cali vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
F. Mercado 52'
J. Dinenno 34'
G. Cano 45+3' (pen)
D. Moreno 10'
11/2/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · FinalsEstadio Deportivo Cali (Palmira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Cali40%
×Draw26%
Independiente Medellin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.39
Independiente Medellin
1.25

Deportivo Cali creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.78
Independiente Medellin
1.55

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.94
Independiente Medellin
1.00

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
66%
Deportivo Cali or Independiente Medellin
74%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
19%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
16%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
71%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
54%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.78 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Independiente Medellin attack 1.55 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
40%
level
26%
Independiente Medellin scores more
34%

Deportivo Cali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Moreno
11'
D. Quinones
18'
J. Angulo
21'
E. Perlaza
34'
J. Dinenno
37'
A. Balanta
44'
A. Ricaurte
45'
R. Renteria
45+3'
G. CanoPenalty
51'
J. Murillo
52'
F. Mercado
79'
R. Renteria
79'
R. Renteria

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Cali vs Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Cali and Independiente Medellin drew 2-2 in Copa Colombia on November 2, 2019.

Goals: D. Moreno (10'), J. Dinenno (34'), G. Cano (45+3' pen), F. Mercado (52').

The match was played at Estadio Deportivo Cali (Palmira).