Deportivo Cali 3–2 Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Cali

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Medellin

D. Rosero 88'

D. Delgado 54'

J. Sand 17'

G. Cano 65', 24'

8/12/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 4Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Cali36%

×Draw31%

Independiente Medellin33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.96

Deportivo Cali

1.03

Independiente Medellin

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.08

creates per match

0.97

0.95

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.08

Independiente Medellin

0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.95

Independiente Medellin

0.98

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cali-0.23scores less

Independiente Medellin+0.63scores more

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

67%

Deportivo Cali or Independiente Medellin

69%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

9%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

62%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

25%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

53%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.95 · 13 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.08 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Independiente Medellin attack 0.97 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

36%

level

31%

Independiente Medellin scores more

33%

Deportivo Cali at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Cano

Independiente Medellin · F

9.1

Match Events

17'

24'

26'

42'

49'

52'

L. Castro← J. Caicedo

54'

D. Delgado↳ J. Sand

65'

Nicolás Benedetti

65'

G. Cano

66'

M. Torres← N. Benedetti

68'

76'

81'

81'

86'

J. Barboza← Y. Anchico

88'

M. Murillo← D. Delgado

88'

D. Rosero↳ J. Angulo

90+3'

K. Moreno← J. Sand

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoIndependiente

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots15

5Corners4

24Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots15

6On Target6

3Off Target4

1Blocked5

7Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

308Total Passes352

244Accurate Passes280

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

24Fouls15

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

9Offsides0