Deportivo Cali 1–0 Huila: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huila

9/14/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Deportivo Cali52%

×Draw29%

Huila20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchHuila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.69

Deportivo Cali

1.31

Huila

0.69

Deportivo Cali creates 90% more chances

Season form · 174 home / 70 away

1.26

creates per match

0.53

0.85

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.26

Huila

0.53

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.85

Huila

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Huila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

80%

Deportivo Cali or Huila

71%

Draw or Huila

48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

24%

Huila wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

14%

Huila 1+ goals

50%

Huila 2+ goals

15%

Huila 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

72%

Huila (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 174 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.26 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huila attack 0.53 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

52%

level

29%

Huila scores more

20%

Deportivo Cali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff