Deportivo Cali 2–1 Cortulua: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cortulua

Y. González 53'

K. Velasco 9'

L. Ruiz 86' (pen)

3/27/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportivo Cali51%

×Draw27%

Cortulua22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.83

Deportivo Cali

1.44

Cortulua

0.83

Deportivo Cali creates 73% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 35 away

1.25

creates per match

0.80

0.86

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.25

Cortulua

0.80

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.86

Cortulua

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

78%

Deportivo Cali or Cortulua

73%

Draw or Cortulua

49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

26%

Cortulua wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

18%

Cortulua 1+ goals

56%

Cortulua 2+ goals

20%

Cortulua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

70%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.86 · 173 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.25 + Cortulua defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cortulua attack 0.80 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

51%

level

27%

Cortulua scores more

22%

Deportivo Cali at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

T. Gutiérrez

Deportivo Cali · F

8.0

Match Events

9'

K. Velasco↳ T. Gutiérrez

11'

Teófilo Gutiérrez

37'

Jimmy Congo

45+3'

Alexis ManyomaGoal confirmed

53'

Y. González↳ T. Gutiérrez

55'

J. Vásquez← C. Mafla

59'

F. Mercado← Juan Mosquera

60'

K. Palacios← A. Castillo

60'

J. Palacios← J. Pérez

72'

A. Rodríguez← A. Vuletich

72'

S. Leyton← E. Camargo

74'

J. Valencia← Jhonny Mosquera

86'

L. RuizPenalty

88'

J. Caldera← T. Gutiérrez

90+1'

Jhon Vásquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCortulua

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots6

5Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots6

2On Target1

2Off Target3

1Blocked2

5Inside Box3

0Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

277Total Passes324

190Accurate Passes229

69%Pass Accuracy71%

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

5Offsides2