Deportivo Cali 2–1 Club River Plate: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Club River Plate

J. Arrieta 39'

J. Vásquez 5'

D. Pérez 77'

2/12/2020

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cali47%

×Draw26%

Club River Plate27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchClub River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Deportivo Cali

1.52

Club River Plate

1.08

Deportivo Cali creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.83

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

0.83

Club River Plate

1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.17

Club River Plate

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Club River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

73%

Deportivo Cali or Club River Plate

74%

Draw or Club River Plate

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

24%

Club River Plate wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

45%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

20%

Club River Plate 1+ goals

66%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

29%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

64%

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 0.83 + Club River Plate defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Club River Plate attack 1.00 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

47%

level

26%

Club River Plate scores more

27%

Deportivo Cali at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Palavecino

Deportivo Cali · M

8.1

Match Events

5'

J. Vásquez↳ D. Andrade

22'

Alberto Contrera

38'

Alvaro Pereira

39'

J. Arrieta↳ J. Angulo

41'

46'

55'

60'

65'

R. Rentería← J. Arrieta

70'

Andres Colorado

73'

A. Arroyo← C. Lizarazo

76'

Eduar Caicedo

77'

D. Pérez

79'

Juan Angulo

84'

D. Barreto← R. Alborno

86'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoClub

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots12

5Corners6

19Fouls17

Shots

20Total Shots12

4On Target3

12Off Target7

4Blocked2

9Inside Box4

11Outside Box8

Passing

63%Possession37%

475Total Passes273

391Accurate Passes184

82%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls17

3Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1