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Deportivo Cali vs Bucaramanga — Primera A 2025

Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
Preview
01:05
Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
9/1/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Deportivo Cali
Big match
42%
Deportivo Cali
model favours
42%30%28%

Bucaramanga score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Cali42%
×Draw30%
Bucaramanga28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cali
1.17
Bucaramanga
0.88

Deportivo Cali creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 34 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cali
1.15
Bucaramanga
0.94

allows per match

Deportivo Cali
0.82
Bucaramanga
1.18

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par
Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Bucaramanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw
72%
Deportivo Cali or Bucaramanga
70%
Draw or Bucaramanga
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
18%
Bucaramanga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
11%
Bucaramanga 1+ goals
59%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
22%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
61%
Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.82 · 40 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.15 + Bucaramanga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bucaramanga attack 0.94 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more
42%
level
30%
Bucaramanga scores more
28%

Deportivo Cali at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row
  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Bucaramanga win just 24% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Bucaramanga outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
Bucaramanga
Defensively solid
52%Possession52%
79%Pass accuracy81%
12.6Shots12.7
1.02xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo CaliBucaramanga

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Deportivo Cali
2
Draws
1
Bucaramanga
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
2–00–03–21–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cali
WWWWW
Bucaramanga
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Cali vs Bucaramanga — Match Preview

Deportivo Cali face Bucaramanga on September 1, 2026 in this Primera A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Cali host Bucaramanga at Estadio Deportivo Cali.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.