Deportivo Cali 2–0 Bucaramanga: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bucaramanga

M. Orozco 63'

J. Martinez 39'

5/11/2026

Copa Colombia · Group Stage - 2Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cali52%

×Draw27%

Bucaramanga21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.83

Deportivo Cali

1.47

Bucaramanga

0.83

Deportivo Cali creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.60

Bucaramanga

0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.00

Bucaramanga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Bucaramanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

79%

Deportivo Cali or Bucaramanga

73%

Draw or Bucaramanga

48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

26%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

18%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

56%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

20%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

71%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.60 + Bucaramanga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bucaramanga attack 0.67 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

52%

level

27%

Bucaramanga scores more

21%

Deportivo Cali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

63'

90+4'

90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff