Deportivo Caaguazu 2–2 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Deportivo Caaguazu

FT

2 – 2

Rubio NU

9/9/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Caaguazu38%

×Draw29%

Rubio NU33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaaguazuExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.19

Rubio NU

1.08

Deportivo Caaguazu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 107 away

1.17

creates per match

1.09

1.07

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.17

Rubio NU

1.09

allows per match

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.07

Rubio NU

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Caaguazu ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Caaguazu or draw

67%

Deportivo Caaguazu or Rubio NU

71%

Draw or Rubio NU

62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+

16%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals

12%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

66%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

29%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)

54%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Caaguazu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 1.17 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more

38%

level

29%

Rubio NU scores more

33%

Deportivo Caaguazu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Caaguazu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff