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Deportivo Caaguazu vs Independiente F.b.c. — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
FT
1 – 0
Independiente F.b.c.
Independiente F.b.c.
9/8/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Caaguazu39%
×Draw28%
Independiente F.b.c.33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.23
Independiente F.b.c.
1.10

Deportivo Caaguazu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 99 away

creates per match

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.17
Independiente F.b.c.
1.14

allows per match

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.07
Independiente F.b.c.
1.29

finishing

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par
Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Caaguazu ↓

Independiente F.b.c. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Caaguazu or draw
67%
Deportivo Caaguazu or Independiente F.b.c.
72%
Draw or Independiente F.b.c.
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
17%
Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
13%
Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals
67%
Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals
30%
Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
54%
Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Caaguazu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Independiente F.b.c. away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 1.17 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.14 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
39%
level
28%
Independiente F.b.c. scores more
33%

Deportivo Caaguazu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Caaguazu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Caaguazu 1–0 Independiente F.b.c.

Deportivo Caaguazu beat Independiente F.b.c. 1-0 in Division Intermedia on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú).