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Deportivo Caaguazu vs 2 de Mayo — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
FT
1 – 1
2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
11/3/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Caaguazu41%
×Draw28%
2 de Mayo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.28
2 de Mayo
1.10

Deportivo Caaguazu creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

creates per match

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.17
2 de Mayo
1.12

allows per match

Deportivo Caaguazu
1.07
2 de Mayo
1.40

finishing

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par
2 de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Caaguazu ↓

2 de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Caaguazu or draw
68%
Deportivo Caaguazu or 2 de Mayo
72%
Draw or 2 de Mayo
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
18%
2 de Mayo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
14%
2 de Mayo 1+ goals
67%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
30%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
56%
2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Caaguazu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

2 de Mayo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 1.17 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

2 de Mayo attack 1.12 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
41%
level
28%
2 de Mayo scores more
32%

Deportivo Caaguazu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Caaguazu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Caaguazu 1–1 2 de Mayo

Deportivo Caaguazu and 2 de Mayo drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú).