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Deportivo Binacional vs Sport Rosario — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Binacional
Deportivo Binacional
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
8/11/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Mariano Melgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportivo Binacional60%
×Draw21%
Sport Rosario18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Binacional
1.98
Sport Rosario
0.99

Deportivo Binacional creates 100% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 22 away

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.81
Sport Rosario
0.82

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.17
Sport Rosario
2.14

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par
Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Sport Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw
82%
Deportivo Binacional or Sport Rosario
79%
Draw or Sport Rosario
40%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+
36%
Sport Rosario wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals
59%
Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals
31%
Sport Rosario 1+ goals
63%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
26%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)
77%
Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more
60%
level
21%
Sport Rosario scores more
18%

Deportivo Binacional at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Binacional vs Sport Rosario

Deportivo Binacional beat Sport Rosario 3-1 in Primera División on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Melgar in Arequipa.