Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Binacional vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Deportivo Binacional
Deportivo Binacional
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
M. Zunino 30'
9/16/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Nacional de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportivo Binacional25%
×Draw24%
LDU de Quito52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Binacional
1.13
LDU de Quito
1.75

LDU de Quito creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional
0.67
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional
2.67
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw
48%
Deportivo Binacional or LDU de Quito
76%
Draw or LDU de Quito
75%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+
9%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals
11%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
83%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
52%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)
32%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 0.67 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Deportivo Binacional defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more
25%
level
24%
LDU de Quito scores more
52%

LDU de Quito at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
M. CorozoLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · D
7.7

Match Events

24'
Rodrigo Aguirre
30'
M. Zunino↳ L. Piovi
55'
Á. Romero← P. Labrín
57'
Ángel Romero
60'
A. Muñoz← M. Caicedo
68'
R. Guachiré← A. Polar
72'
Christian Cruz
72'
C. Martínez← J. Julio
78'
Lucas Villarruel
81'
A. Osorio← J. Deza
83'
Matías Zunino
90+1'
B. Arce← M. Zunino
90+2'
L. Ayala← C. Cruz

Possession

43%Deportivo

Shots

4Deportivo

Pass accuracy

48%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoLDU
Overview
43%Possession57%
4Total Shots19
1Corners8
17Fouls20
Shots
4Total Shots19
1On Target4
2Off Target11
1Blocked4
3Inside Box15
1Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
379Total Passes472
293Accurate Passes390
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls20
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Deportivo Binacional 0–1 LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Deportivo Binacional 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on September 16, 2020.

Goals: M. Zunino (30').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Lima in Lima.