Deportivo Binacional 1–2 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Deportivo Binacional

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

R. Torres 55'

J. Manzaneda 19'

F. Torres 15'

5/4/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Guillermo Briceno Rosamedina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo Binacional56%

×Draw23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo BinacionalExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.01

Deportivo Binacional

1.83

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.01

Deportivo Binacional creates 81% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 43 away

1.81

creates per match

0.86

1.17

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional

1.81

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional

1.17

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw

79%

Deportivo Binacional or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

77%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+

32%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals

84%

Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals

54%

Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals

28%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

64%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

27%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)

73%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.86 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more

56%

level

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

21%

Deportivo Binacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Manzaneda

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

F. Torres↳ J. Manzaneda

19'

J. Manzaneda↳ A. Quintana

34'

Edson Aubert

46'

A. Aguinaga← J. Ayqque

46'

M. Rasmussen← L. Duque

46'

R. Torres← H. Crespo

55'

R. Torres↳ A. Aguinaga

61'

O. Takeuchi← F. Torres

61'

J. Palomino← C. Velarde

62'

E. Mogollon← S. Torres

68'

70'

71'

71'

75'

76'

80'

A. Pizzorno← A. Quintana

84'

A. Magallanes← E. Aubert

86'

Pablo Bueno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoClub

Overview

66%Possession34%

16Total Shots15

3Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots15

4On Target5

10Off Target9

2Blocked1

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box12

Passing

66%Possession34%

495Total Passes255

417Accurate Passes181

84%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Deportivo Binacional vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Deportivo Binacional 2-1 in Primera División on May 4, 2025.

Goals: F. Torres (15'), J. Manzaneda (19'), R. Torres (55').

Deportivo Binacional controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Briceno Rosamedina in Juliaca.

Deportivo Binacional vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Binacional vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas