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Deportivo Armenio vs San Miguel — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
9/3/2023Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 12Estadio Armenia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Deportivo Armenio42%
×Draw30%
San Miguel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Armenio
1.17
San Miguel
0.91

Deportivo Armenio creates 29% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 86 away

creates per match

Deportivo Armenio
1.19
San Miguel
0.91

allows per match

Deportivo Armenio
0.90
San Miguel
1.15

finishing

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Armenio ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Armenio or draw
72%
Deportivo Armenio or San Miguel
70%
Draw or San Miguel
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
18%
San Miguel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
11%
San Miguel 1+ goals
60%
San Miguel 2+ goals
23%
San Miguel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
60%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Armenio at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.19 + San Miguel defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Miguel attack 0.91 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Armenio scores more
42%
level
30%
San Miguel scores more
28%

Deportivo Armenio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Deportivo Armenio 2–0 San Miguel

Deportivo Armenio beat San Miguel 2-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Armenia in Ingeniero Maschwitz, Provincia de Buenos Aires.