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Deportivo Armenio vs Los Andes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Los Andes
Los Andes
7/29/2023Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 8Estadio Armenia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Deportivo Armenio41%
×Draw31%
Los Andes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Armenio
1.11
Los Andes
0.88

Deportivo Armenio creates 26% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 97 away

creates per match

Deportivo Armenio
1.19
Los Andes
0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Armenio
0.90
Los Andes
1.03

finishing

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par
Los Andes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Armenio ↓

Los Andes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Armenio or draw
71%
Deportivo Armenio or Los Andes
69%
Draw or Los Andes
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
17%
Los Andes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
10%
Los Andes 1+ goals
59%
Los Andes 2+ goals
22%
Los Andes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
59%
Los Andes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Armenio at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

Los Andes away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.03 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.19 + Los Andes defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Los Andes attack 0.85 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Armenio scores more
41%
level
31%
Los Andes scores more
29%

Deportivo Armenio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Deportivo Armenio 1–3 Los Andes

Los Andes beat Deportivo Armenio 3-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Armenia in Ingeniero Maschwitz, Provincia de Buenos Aires.