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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Monagas SC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
4/13/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui36%
×Draw27%
Monagas SC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.25
Monagas SC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 134 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Monagas SC
1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Monagas SC
1.49

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
64%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Monagas SC
73%
Draw or Monagas SC
64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
16%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
13%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
71%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
36%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
50%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Monagas SC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Monagas SC attack 1.17 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
36%
level
27%
Monagas SC scores more
36%

Deportivo Anzoategui at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Anzoategui 3 – 2 Monagas SC

Deportivo Anzoategui beat Monagas SC 3-2 in Primera División on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).