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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Estudiantes Caracas — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
CANC
00:00
Estudiantes Caracas
Estudiantes Caracas
11/3/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui46%
×Draw25%
Estudiantes Caracas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.57
Estudiantes Caracas
1.18

Deportivo Anzoategui creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Estudiantes Caracas
1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Estudiantes Caracas
2.14

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Estudiantes Caracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
71%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Estudiantes Caracas
75%
Draw or Estudiantes Caracas
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
24%
Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
21%
Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals
69%
Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals
33%
Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
62%
Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Estudiantes Caracas away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.03 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
46%
level
25%
Estudiantes Caracas scores more
29%

Deportivo Anzoategui at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Anzoategui host Estudiantes Caracas

November 3, 2019: Deportivo Anzoategui take on Estudiantes Caracas in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Anzoategui host Estudiantes Caracas at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.