Deportivo Anzoategui 1–2 Deportivo La Guaira

Deportivo Anzoategui

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Deportivo La Guaira

5/18/2018

Primera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui32%

×Draw28%

Deportivo La Guaira40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo AnzoateguiExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.27

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.10

Deportivo La Guaira

1.27

Deportivo La Guaira creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 148 away

1.00

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.00

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.33

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw

60%

Deportivo Anzoategui or Deportivo La Guaira

72%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

68%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+

13%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)

44%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more

32%

level

28%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

40%

Deportivo La Guaira at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff