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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Carabobo FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
5/18/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 19Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui31%
×Draw29%
Carabobo FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.04
Carabobo FC
1.21

Carabobo FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 145 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Carabobo FC
1.09

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Carabobo FC
1.09

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Carabobo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
60%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Carabobo FC
71%
Draw or Carabobo FC
69%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
12%
Carabobo FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
9%
Carabobo FC 1+ goals
70%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
34%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
44%
Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Carabobo FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Carabobo FC attack 1.09 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
31%
level
29%
Carabobo FC scores more
40%

Carabobo FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Anzoategui vs Carabobo FC

Carabobo FC beat Deportivo Anzoategui 1-0 in Primera División on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).