Deportivo Alavés III 1–1 Leioa: Result & Stats

Deportivo Alavés III

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leioa

Iñaki Saenz 49'

Ibón Martinez 58' (OG)

3/29/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III44%

×Draw27%

Leioa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIIExpected goals in this matchLeioa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Deportivo Alavés III

1.40

Leioa

1.10

Deportivo Alavés III creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 87 away

1.65

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.65

Leioa

1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.00

Leioa

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Leioa →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw

70%

Deportivo Alavés III or Leioa

73%

Draw or Leioa

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+

21%

Leioa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals

17%

Leioa 1+ goals

67%

Leioa 2+ goals

30%

Leioa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)

60%

Leioa (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Leioa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Leioa defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Leioa attack 1.20 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more

44%

level

27%

Leioa scores more

30%

Deportivo Alavés III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Enrique Montalban← Jorge Gómez

49'

Iñaki Saenz

58'

Ibón MartinezOwn goal

60'

Alex Pérez← David Hernández

69'

Julen Martínez← Martin Echevarría

69'

Jon Ander← Mikel Relloso

69'

Ieltxu García← Lete

78'

Imanol Fernández← Iñaki Saenz

83'

Pablo Garcia← Iñaki Alberca

85'

Mikel Gamiz← Salaberria

85'

Asier del Río← Josu Juste

85'

Montes← Eder Aguirregomezcorta

Deportivo

Leioa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Germán Beltrán

46'▲Enrique Montalban←▼Jorge Gómez

69'▲Julen Martínez←▼Martin Echevarría

69'▲Jon Ander←▼Mikel Relloso

78'▲Imanol Fernández←▼Iñaki Saenz

83'▲Pablo Garcia←▼Iñaki Alberca

Deportivo Alavés III substitutes

MontalbanMartínezAnderFernándezGarcia

Manager: Jon Castrillo

60'▲Alex Pérez←▼David Hernández

69'▲Ieltxu García←▼Lete

85'▲Mikel Gamiz←▼Salaberria

85'▲Asier del Río←▼Josu Juste

85'▲Montes←▼Eder Aguirregomezcorta

Leioa substitutes

PérezGarcíaGamizRíoMontes

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs Leioa

Deportivo Alavés III and Leioa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 29, 2025.

Goals: Iñaki Saenz (49'), Ibón Martinez (58' o.g.).

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4 in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés III vs Leioa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs Leioa