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Deportivo Alavés III vs Derio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derio
Derio
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III46%
×Draw26%
Derio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés III
1.44
Derio
1.07

Deportivo Alavés III creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.65
Derio
1.15

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.00
Derio
1.23

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par
Derio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Derio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw
72%
Deportivo Alavés III or Derio
74%
Draw or Derio
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
22%
Derio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
18%
Derio 1+ goals
66%
Derio 2+ goals
29%
Derio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
62%
Derio (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Derio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Derio defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Derio attack 1.15 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more
46%
level
26%
Derio scores more
28%

Deportivo Alavés III at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Alavés III 1 – 0 Derio

Deportivo Alavés III beat Derio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.