Deportivo Alavés III 0–0 Basconia: Result & Stats

Deportivo Alavés III

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Basconia

4/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III39%

×Draw27%

Basconia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIIExpected goals in this matchBasconia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Deportivo Alavés III

1.27

Basconia

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 95 away

1.65

creates per match

1.34

1.00

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.65

Basconia

1.34

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.00

Basconia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Basconia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Basconia →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw

66%

Deportivo Alavés III or Basconia

73%

Draw or Basconia

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+

17%

Basconia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals

14%

Basconia 1+ goals

69%

Basconia 2+ goals

33%

Basconia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)

53%

Basconia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Basconia away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Basconia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.27

Basconia attack 1.34 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more

39%

level

27%

Basconia scores more

34%

Deportivo Alavés III at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs Basconia

Deportivo Alavés III and Basconia drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés III vs Basconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs Basconia