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Deportivo Alavés III vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III53%
×Draw25%
Aurrerá Ondarroa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés III
1.65
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.96

Deportivo Alavés III creates 72% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.65
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.00
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw
78%
Deportivo Alavés III or Aurrerá Ondarroa
75%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
29%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
49%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
23%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
62%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
25%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
71%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more
53%
level
25%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
22%

Deportivo Alavés III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Deportivo Alavés III and Aurrerá Ondarroa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.