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Deportivo Alavés II vs Tudelano — League #876 2026

Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tudelano
Tudelano
A. Arzak 90'
L. Pinillos Wilson 19'
A. Moreno 3'
I. Alayeto 18' (pen)
11/9/2025League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 10Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II47%
×Draw27%
Tudelano26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés II
1.45
Tudelano
1.00

Deportivo Alavés II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II
1.45
Tudelano
1.32

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II
0.68
Tudelano
1.45

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par
Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Tudelano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw
74%
Deportivo Alavés II or Tudelano
73%
Draw or Tudelano
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
23%
Tudelano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
18%
Tudelano 1+ goals
63%
Tudelano 2+ goals
26%
Tudelano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
65%
Tudelano (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.45 + Tudelano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tudelano attack 1.32 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more
47%
level
27%
Tudelano scores more
26%

Deportivo Alavés II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Moreno
18'
I. AlayetoPenalty
19'
L. Pinillos Wilson
90'
A. Arzak
Deportivo
Tudelano
Molo
Manager: Molo
Oskar Vales
Manager: Oskar Vales

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Tudelano

Deportivo Alavés II beat Tudelano 3-1 in League #876 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Moreno (3'), I. Alayeto (18' pen), L. Pinillos Wilson (19'), A. Arzak (90').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 3 in Vitoria-Gasteiz.