Deportivo Alavés II 1–0 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Deportivo Alavés II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tudelano

Iñigo Arzuaga 75'

11/24/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II46%

×Draw28%

Tudelano26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Deportivo Alavés II

1.35

Tudelano

0.93

Deportivo Alavés II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

1.21

creates per match

1.04

0.82

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II

1.21

Tudelano

1.04

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II

0.82

Tudelano

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw

74%

Deportivo Alavés II or Tudelano

72%

Draw or Tudelano

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

22%

Tudelano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

15%

Tudelano 1+ goals

61%

Tudelano 2+ goals

24%

Tudelano 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

64%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.21 + Tudelano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tudelano attack 1.04 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

46%

level

28%

Tudelano scores more

26%

Deportivo Alavés II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Fernando Delgado← Eneko Zabaleta

61'

A. Lupu← Iñaki Elejalde

69'

Iñigo Arzuaga← Álex Gualda

75'

Iñigo Arzuaga

76'

David Lázaro← Á. López

80'

Adrián Socorro← D. Cortés

82'

Primi Férriz← Víctor López

Deportivo

Tudelano

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iñaki Alonso

61'▲A. Lupu←▼Iñaki Elejalde

69'▲Iñigo Arzuaga←▼Álex Gualda

82'▲Primi Férriz←▼Víctor López

Deportivo Alavés II substitutes

LupuArzuagaFérrizCastroBengoetxeaÁlvarezRivas

Manager: Lumbreras

46'▲Fernando Delgado←▼Eneko Zabaleta

76'▲David Lázaro←▼Á. López

80'▲Adrián Socorro←▼D. Cortés

Tudelano substitutes

DelgadoLázaroSocorroOlivasLópez