Deportivo Alavés II 2–2 Santutxu: Result & Stats

Deportivo Alavés II

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Santutxu

10/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II61%

×Draw22%

Santutxu17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIExpected goals in this matchSantutxu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.91

Deportivo Alavés II

1.92

Santutxu

0.91

Deportivo Alavés II creates 111% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 46 away

2.26

creates per match

0.98

0.84

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II

2.26

Santutxu

0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II

0.84

Santutxu

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Santutxu →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw

83%

Deportivo Alavés II or Santutxu

78%

Draw or Santutxu

39%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

36%

Santutxu wins by 2+

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

85%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

57%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

30%

Santutxu 1+ goals

60%

Santutxu 2+ goals

23%

Santutxu 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

78%

Santutxu (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 2.26 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

61%

level

22%

Santutxu scores more

17%

Deportivo Alavés II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Santutxu

Deportivo Alavés II and Santutxu drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés II vs Santutxu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Santutxu