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Deportivo Alavés II vs Salamanca UDS — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
CANC
00:00
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
4/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II50%
×Draw26%
Salamanca UDS23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés II
1.47
Salamanca UDS
0.91

Deportivo Alavés II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II
1.21
Salamanca UDS
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II
0.82
Salamanca UDS
1.73

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw
77%
Deportivo Alavés II or Salamanca UDS
74%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
25%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
18%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
60%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
23%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
68%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.21 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.47

Salamanca UDS attack 1.00 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more
50%
level
26%
Salamanca UDS scores more
23%

Deportivo Alavés II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Alavés II host Salamanca UDS

April 5, 2020: Deportivo Alavés II take on Salamanca UDS in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Alavés II host Salamanca UDS at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.